2013 Record: Overall (4-5-1)/Cowboys picks (2-1)
Chargers +2 vs DAL....Lions -2.5 vs CHI...Atlanta -2 vs NE...
Chargers +2 vs DAL - I don't believe that one magical game against a Rams team that had a lot of people fooled (including me) suddenly means this is a great Cowboys team...The Cowboys have beaten two teams that are unmitigated disasters this season to get to 2-1. And suddenly they are good enough to be GIVING points on the road to a team that has lost 2 games by a total of 6 points to Houston and Titans teams that have very stout defenses? Not on my watch...Gimmie the Chargers and the points...
Lions -2.5 vs CHI
The Bears are a much better home team than when they are on the road....Reggie Bush makes ALL the difference to the Lions offense. I like Ryan Broyles filling in for an injured Nate Burleson (if you are in a PPR league, grab him)....plus, this is the Lions only home game in a 5 week stretch....they will be up!
Atlanta -2 vs NE
This is a bit of a gut call...but it's based in fact...I think, of all the unbeatens, the Pats are currently the ones that are using the most smoke and mirrors. (Tom Brady aside). The Pats are injured all over the place....Gronk and Amendola are out...and while the Falcons will miss Steven Jackson again, they have a Rodgers/Snelling combo that can fill in nicely. The Falcons have lost to two other unbeatens (Saints and Fins) in one score games...they are at home, and need this game more than the Pats do.
2013 Record: Overall (4-2-1)/Cowboys picks (2-0)
Rams/Cowboys OVER 47.5...Jags +19 points....Packers -2.5 @ Cincy
Rams +4 At Dallas/ OVER 47.5
Ok..I'm very uncomfortable with this number. As I mentioned on the show, if the Rams were just a LITTLE more skilled at QB and RB (ala the Chiefs who I see as just that), I'd be taking the Rams and the points as my OFFICIAL pick. As a matter of fact, if you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick this game I would take the Rams and the points. But, as I've stated, this years picks are not about picking games unless we are REALLY convinced they are going to end up that way. And it's tough for me to see Dallas losing back-to-back games against teams that finished with losing records last year...at least if this season is going to be anything other than a complete bust. So the number is what makes it weird...I figure the Cowboys win, but don't cover.
HOWEVER, I'm making my official pick on the over. Against the Rams the Cardinals put up 24 points (51 points total in the game). Against the Rams the Falcons put up 31 points (55 total). The Rams and Cowboys are 24th and 25th in yards given up per game, respectively. Neither of these teams have shown the ability to stop anyone yet. The Cowboys are shuffling their safety position this week..JJ Wilcox is going to be the first rookie to start at safety for Dallas since 2006, and the Rams are going to test the LB's and Safeties with Jared Cook, Tavon Austin on crosses and Daryl Richardson coming out of the backfield. I see points.
Julio Jones lit up the Rams last week for over 180 yards receiving...Dez Bryant and I see points. Take the over.
Jags +19 at Seahawks
I'm going to make it easy on both of us and just cut and paste my show notes on the 7 NFL games with the largest point spreads in history.
Dec 5 1976…2nd to last game of the season…steelers were the two time defending super bowl champions…they had started the season 1-4 and lost terry bradshaw in week 5….but they ended up winning the last 9 games in a row…so theyd won 7 straight…heading into the game against the inaugural season Bucs…27 point favorite
Pittsburgh blew them out 42-0.
2007 patriots…team that went undefeated until losing to giants in super bowl
A November game against the Philadelphia Eagles had the Patriots favored by 24.5 points. barely won 31-28. (DID NOT COVER)
December 5th, 1993
San Francisco 49ers -24 vs Cincinnati Bengals..
Niners came in off five consecutive wins by an average of 24 points…Bengals came in 1-10 (but off their first win of season)…Sunday night game might have inflated the line….San Francisco won 21-8 but did not cover the spread.
Strike season right after strike…1987 49ers favored over Falcons by 23.5 IN ATLANTA San Francisco won 25-17 but couldn’t cover the spread.
October 2nd, 1977
Dallas Cowboys -23 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bucs were 0-16 in their history after dropping their first two games in 1977 and scoring 3 points in each of those games. The Cowboys opened the season beating the defending NFC Champion Vikings in overtime on the road and followed that up with a 20 point drubbing of the Giants the next game. Dallas win 23-7 but did not cover the spread.
December 23rd, 2007
New England Patriots -22.5 vs Miami Dolphins
Notes: The Patriots were 14-0 coming into this game while Miami was 1-13 and off their first win of the season the previous week in overtime against the Ravens.
The largest true road favorite during this time, not including the strike replacement game in 1987; New England won 28-7 but did not cover the spread.
One week after the Steelers blowout, the New England Patriots were 21-point favorites AT Tampa Bay… New England won the game, but didn’t cover the spread winning 31-14.
Favorite covered the spread only once in 7 biggest spreads in NFL history...if the Jags score a TD then the Seahawks need to score at least 26....AND new Jags coach Gus Bradley spent the last several years as Defensive Coordinator for his friend Pete Carroll in Seattle. Carroll will not be looking to embarrass his friend...take the Jags and the points.
Packers -2.5 @ Cincy
The Packers faced Colin Kaepernick and RGIII in the first two weeks....compared to those guys, the riddle of Any Daulton will seem like a simple, statue of a puzzle to find the answer to. The Bengals beat up on their big brother last week against the Steelers, in primetime on Monday night...so this is a short week coming off an emotional rivalry win.
The Pack found their running game with Lacy late in week one, and it clicked all game in week two. I think the running game changes everything with the Pack...Pack possibly win by double digits....(most likely by 4-5)..
About a month ago we were on hand for the shooting of the Cuban cameo on Fast N Loud. Below you'll see pics...and there are two vids...
AFTER WEEK #1 (1-1-1)
Ok...We picked the Cowboys right last week...lost with the Bucs in NY...and somehow pushed with the Bengals against the Bears...We are going to pick the Cowboys game every week, and than as many, or as few, games as I feel is the right amount.
Cowboys @ Chiefs UNDER 46.5
Here's the deal...I think this game will be close, I think the Cowboys will be behind, I think the Cowboys will have the chance to win in the end....and I think the Cowboys will lose. But the 3 point spead is just tough for me to justify picking one way or another...so I'm going where I'm more confident...the under.
As I mentioned on the show last week, I didn't see either defense doing much in the Giants game and, while 6 turnovers ain't nothing, all the points and yards was as I expected.
The Chiefs are built to play hard nosed defense and efficient offense that features the run, the short pass, and a QB who's better than he gets credit for. That clock will keep moving and both teams will find tough sledding. The Chiefs fans will be very loud in their home opener...I wouldn't be suprised if Dallas doesn't score until the 2nd Q...and is kept right under 20 points for the game.
Arizona +2 vs Detroit
Under Jim Schwartz the Lions have been flashy, inconsistant and bad on the road. They've lost 10 of their last 13 on the road...I think the Cardinals are better than you think...(and I think the Rams are better than you think too)....which is why the Cards losing to the Rams in week one makes this line so juicy for me....
POSSIBLY the better team at home getting points....I'll take the Cards.
Rams +6 At Atlanta
Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised it the Rams won this one outright. The Falcons are showing their age....they gave Brees too much time last week...and Bradford will eat them alive with the short passing game to the underated Daryl Richardson, the underappreciated Chris Givens and the suddenly discovered Jared Cook.
I like the toughness the Rams show on both sides of the line and they are a dome team playing in another dome getting 6. Good enough for me.
Vikings at Bears OVER 42
I don't know but there is just something that's weird to me about a game having a low over/under number but with one team being favored by nearly a touchdown. And this is almost the lowest number available this week...WITH Chicago a 6 point favorite..
The Bears have owned the Vikings in Chicago....and they have the perfect screen game with Forte to slow down that Vikings rush. They say styles make fights...and this one looks very pro-Bear....but give me AP and the Vikes to do a little something and push this over the number.
That's it....feel free to do nothing with it.