Cash's Week #3 NFL Picks

2013 Record: Overall (4-2-1)/Cowboys picks (2-0)

Rams/Cowboys OVER 47.5...Jags +19 points....Packers -2.5 @ Cincy

Rams +4 At Dallas/ OVER 47.5 

Ok..I'm very uncomfortable with this number.  As I mentioned on the show, if the Rams were just a LITTLE more skilled at QB and RB (ala the Chiefs who I see as just that), I'd be taking the Rams and the points as my OFFICIAL pick.  As a matter of fact, if you put a gun to my head and forced me to pick this game I would take the Rams and the points.  But, as I've stated, this years picks are not about picking games unless we are REALLY convinced they are going to end up that way.  And it's tough for me to see Dallas losing back-to-back games against teams that finished with losing records last year...at least if this season is going to be anything other than a complete bust.  So the number is what makes it weird...I figure the Cowboys win, but don't cover.

HOWEVER, I'm making my official pick on the over. Against the Rams the Cardinals put up 24 points (51 points total in the game). Against the Rams the Falcons put up 31 points (55 total). The Rams and Cowboys are 24th and 25th in yards given up per game, respectively.  Neither of these teams have shown the ability to stop anyone yet.  The Cowboys are shuffling their safety position this week..JJ Wilcox is going to be the first rookie to start at safety for Dallas since 2006, and the Rams are going to test the LB's and Safeties with Jared Cook, Tavon Austin on crosses and Daryl Richardson coming out of the backfield.  I see points.

Julio Jones lit up the Rams last week for over 180 yards receiving...Dez Bryant and I see points. Take the over.

Jags +19 at Seahawks

I'm going to make it easy on both of us and just cut and paste my show notes on the 7 NFL games with the largest point spreads in history.

Dec 5 1976…2^nd to last game of the season…steelers were the two time defending super bowl champions…they had started the season 1-4 and lost terry bradshaw in week 5….but they ended up winning the last 9 games in a row…so theyd won 7 straight…heading into the game against the inaugural season Bucs…27 point favorite

 Pittsburgh blew them out 42-0.

 2007 patriots…team that went undefeated until losing to giants in super bowl

 A November game against the Philadelphia Eagles had the Patriots favored by 24.5 points. barely won 31-28. (DID NOT COVER)

December 5th, 1993

San Francisco 49ers -24 vs Cincinnati Bengals..

 Niners came in off five consecutive wins by an average of 24 points…Bengals came in 1-10 (but off their first win of season)…Sunday night game might have inflated the line….San Francisco won 21-8 but did not cover the spread.

Strike season right after strike…1987 49ers favored over Falcons by 23.5 IN ATLANTA San Francisco won 25-17 but couldn’t cover the spread.

 October 2nd, 1977

Dallas Cowboys -23 vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 Bucs were 0-16 in their history after dropping their first two games in 1977 and scoring 3 points in each of those games.  The Cowboys opened the season beating the defending NFC Champion Vikings in overtime on the road and followed that up with a 20 point drubbing of the Giants the next game. Dallas win 23-7 but did not cover the spread.

December 23rd, 2007

New England Patriots -22.5 vs Miami Dolphins

 Notes: The Patriots were 14-0 coming into this game while Miami was 1-13 and off their first win of the season the previous week in overtime against the Ravens.

 The largest true road favorite during this time, not including the strike replacement game in 1987; New England won 28-7 but did not cover the spread.

One week after the Steelers blowout, the New England Patriots were 21-point favorites AT Tampa Bay… New England won the game, but didn’t cover the spread winning 31-14.

Favorite covered the spread only once in 7 biggest spreads in NFL history...if the Jags score a TD then the Seahawks need to score at least 26....AND new Jags coach Gus Bradley spent the last several years as Defensive Coordinator for his friend Pete Carroll in Seattle.  Carroll will not be looking to embarrass his friend...take the Jags and the points.

Packers -2.5 @ Cincy

The Packers faced Colin Kaepernick and RGIII in the first two weeks....compared to those guys, the riddle of Any Daulton will seem like a simple, statue of a puzzle to find the answer to.  The Bengals beat up on their big brother last week against the Steelers, in primetime on Monday night...so this is a short week coming off an emotional rivalry win.

The Pack found their running game with Lacy late in week one, and it clicked all game in week two.  I think the running game changes everything with the Pack...Pack possibly win by double digits....(most likely by 4-5)..